A Farewell to Arms? US Security Relations with Taiwan and the Prospects for Stability in the Taiwan Strait

As China’s rapid rise as an economic and—increasingly—military power dramatically alters the security landscape in East Asia, prominent voices in both Washington and Beijing have in recent years advocated a shift in their respective country’s approach to the US-Taiwan relationship. In the United States, several scholars and former officials have called for a reduced US security commitment to Taiwan, and in particular an end to arms sales to Taiwan. Proponents of this view suggest that a scaled back US commitment would pay dividends in terms of an improved US-China relationship. In the PRC, meanwhile, a number of voices have called for a tougher Chinese response to US arms sales—including the imposition of economic sanctions. This chapter critically evaluates both arguments, and concludes that both proposed policy shifts carry with them significant risks for the country that would initiate the change.